John Boehner can be defeated, but Eric Gurr must drop out of the race (see update)

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Conservative voters have a rare opportunity to indirectly make a great headway in rolling back “Business as Usual” in Washington, DC, this year. Lack-luster Speaker of the House, John Boehner, is facing the first real primary challenge that he’s faced since becoming Speaker. He’s even running television commercials. But what makes this such an opportunity is that challengers tend to do much better in off-year elections, and in every respect, this is an off-year election.

Consider these factors:

  1. There is no presidential election this year.
  2. Neither of Ohio’s U.S. senators are up for election this year.
  3. Ohio’s Republican Governor and Lieutenant Governor are running un-opposed in the primary.

There is no major race this year that will serve to get large numbers of Ohio District 8 voters to the polls. So fewer voters will be able to affect a larger percentage swing, than in most other election years.


But the Ohio District 8 congressional race is more than just another local race. It’s a race that may well determine the fate of the GOP. That’s because the defeat of a Speaker, who has completely abandoned his party’s principles, will reverberate through the halls of Congress and RINOs from every state will realize that they are now vulnerable to the same fate.

Never before has a sitting Speaker of the House been defeated in a primary election. But this year, John Boehner faces a political perfect storm. He’s facing well funded TEA Party challenger, in an off-year primary, at a time when his approval rating is at rock bottom. Certainly, conservative candidate J.D. Winteregg can’t match Boehner’s million dollar war chest. But more than $300,000 has already been spent to promote Winteregg’s campaign, including a great television commercial, that has garnered national attention and given Winteregg the name recognition that he needed.

Traditional Republican voters have watched for eight years, as the GOP has become “Democrat-Lite,” under the weak and incapable excuse for leadership provided by John Boehner. In fact, a recent Human Events/Gravis poll of more than 1000 GOP primary voters showed that half of those voters would welcome a primary challenge to John Boehner, while only 28% would not. Add this discontent with Boehner to the fact that it’s a rare off-year primary and it all adds up to the fact that Boehner is primed for defeat.

But it’s not in the bag. There are two other Republican candidates in the race and Ohio’s primary is a “simple majority” primary. That means that in a 4-way race, it would be entirely possible for Boehner, as the only RINO in the race, to win with as little as 25% plus 1 vote, if conservatives were to split evenly. Then remember that 28% of District 8 primary voters were opposed to any challenger to Boehner. If it were truly a 4-way race, then Boehner would be the one who would have it in the bag.

But in reality, one of those three other candidates, Matthew Ashworth, is completely insignificant in this race, having no funding or organized support to speak of. He will be fortunate if his vote total gets out of double digits. So this makes it effectively a 3-way race. That means that Boehner could win the primary with as little as 33% plus 1 vote. Though not in the bag, reaching that low threshold would be easy for Boehner.

But let’s look at Boehner’s third challenger, Eric Gurr. He is only barely less insignificant than Ashworth, having raised less than $50,000 in a race where the leaders are spending in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. In fact, Gurr is so insignificant that Project VoteSmart doesn’t even have a basic info page for him on their website.

Update May 1, 2014: Matthew Ashworth has withdrawn from the race.

Let’s remember that the most important issue here is not getting a particular candidate elected. It’s all about ousting an entrenched RINO. Job Number One is defeating Boehner. If a candidate can’t do that, then his positions on all other issues in the race fade to insignificance. We’re not supporting Winteregg because he is better than Gurr or Ashworth. Any one of the three challengers to Boehner would be quite acceptable. We’re supporting Winteregg because he’s the only candidate who can accomplish Job Number One. He’s the only TEA Party candidate who can WIN.

Let’s do some math.

28% of District 8 GOP primary voters didn’t want to see a primary challenge to Boehner. It’s a safe bet that almost all of those people are RINOs, upon whose votes Boehner can depend. That would put him more than half way to a solid majority; not just a simple majority.

50% of District 8 GOP primary voters look forward to a primary challenger to Boehner. It’s a safe bet that most of those votes will likely go to one of the two TEA Party candidates.

22% of District 8 GOP primary voters were undecided as to whether they wanted to see Boehner face a primary challenger. These are the votes that would be critical in either a 2-way or 3-way race.

But Gurr is being out-spent by Winteregg 6 to 1 and accordingly, Gurr has almost no name-recognition to speak of. So even in his wildest dreams, Gurr can’t even hope to tie Winteregg for the votes of the 50% who wanted to see a Boehner challenger and he would fare even worse, with the 22% who were undecided on that question. Even in a 2-way race, Gurr would have no chance, because he would be an unknown, with almost no finances or name-recognition of significance, facing a sitting Speaker of the House. It’s just not possible.

By contrast, J.D. Winteregg, who like Gurr, began this campaign as a political unknown, has managed to gain lots of attention; even appearing on national news programs. While he hasn’t got Boehner’s name recognition, Winteregg has become quite well known within Ohio’s 8th District. Furthermore, one of the most innovative and effective political ads ever, is his Boehner has elictile disfunction ad. It has people all over the nation talking about him. If nothing else, it has gained him tremendous name recognition.

Disenfranchised District 8 voters now know who Winteregg is and what he stands for. There is no doubt that in a 3-way race, Winteregg would fair quite well and might possibly win. However, as long as Gurr remains in the race, to siphon off conservative votes, it’s really unlikely that any conservative candidate would be able to unseat Boehner.

But in a 2-way race, Winteregg has a solid chance of defeating Boehner. That’s because, in such a scenario, Boehner would need roughly 50% of the vote to secure a win, rather than a simple majority. Then consider that 50% of GOP voters in the district wanted a primary challenger for Boehner. Suddenly, the race gets very tight. Sure, District 8 voters might not vote for a complete unknown. But Winteregg is no longer an unknown. He could very well snag most of the votes of those wanting to see a challenger to Boehner, along with a large part of the 22%, who were undecided about a Boehner challenger.

J.D. Winteregg can win!

Update May 2, 2014: I spoke at length with Eric Gurr today and in follow-up research I confirmed that it is typical that about 35% to 40% of Ohio District 8 voters take advantage of early voting. This means that if this election is not an exception, it may well be too late to to unseat Boehner. If Boehner managed to get roughly 45% to 55% of early voting, as was expected, and the challengers split the rest, then it becomes increasingly difficult for either Winteregg or Gurr to make up the difference and get more overall votes than Boehner. It’s not a done deal. But it doesn’t look good for ousting Boehner.

Winteregg can defeat Boehner. By contrast, Gurr can’t possibly win. Furthermore, Gurr certainly knows that his continued presence in this race can serve no good cause for conservatives, since he can only bleed off critical conservative votes, in this simple majority primary, where every vote will count.

So the question becomes, “Is Gurr a conservative patriot, who will withdraw from the race and throw his support to Winteregg, for the good of the party and the nation, or is he more concerned with his own ego, than helping to secure a win that will change the face of the GOP for the next decade?” Of course, there is one other possibility, though I hesitate to mention it. If Gurr doesn’t bow out, it might possibly be because he’s a Boehner supporter in drag, whose whole purpose in running, is to split the conservative vote. But I’ll leave it to Ohio District 8 GOP voters to determine if that’s the case.

This race is about more than the ideology of individual challengers to Boehner. It’s about transforming the whole of the GOP, with just one primary election race. Both of Boehner’s challengers are imminently acceptable conservatives. But conservative voters in Ohio can’t afford to let partisan “my candidate is more conservative than your candidate” bickering cause conservatives to lose this opportunity to oust Boehner. This is about changing the face of the GOP and sending a strong message to all RINOs across the nation, who survive this election season.

Sure, it would be better to replace every one of those RINOs. But we all know that’s not going to happen in just one election cycle. But defeating a sitting Speaker, in the primary, would change the way those RINOs vote, till such time as we can replace them. In other words, they would do the right thing, even if for the wrong reasons. And, who knows? Some of them might even have an epiphany and become strong advocates for conservatism.

The point is that a win by either Winteregg or Gurr would send that powerful message to RINOs. However, although they’re both good conservatives, the numbers demonstrate, all too clearly, that only Winteregg has any chance of making that win happen.

With just over a week till the Ohio Primary, it’s time for Gurr to demonstrate that he’s in this for the good of the party and the nation and not just for himself. He can do this by not only withdrawing from the Ohio District 8 congressional race, but by doing so in a highly publicized manner, with J.D. Winteregg present and publicly throwing his support to J.D. Winteregg. With a week to get that message out to voters, conservatives could pull out the biggest win of 2014, by unseating John Boehner, and in doing so, give the TEA Party effective control of all congressional RINOs.

The Republican voters of Ohio’s 8th District have a huge responsibility. This is the single most important race of 2014 and only they get to choose, for the entire nation. The rest of the GOP is depending on those few voters in Ohio. District 8 GOP voters may well be remembered, for years to come, as the patriots who single-handedly saved the whole GOP and toppled the RINO dynasty within the party. But if they fail to oust Boehner, they’ll more likely become famous – or infamous – for being the district that failed the GOP, when they were needed most. Ohio District 8 voters can breathe new conservative life into the GOP or let the GOP continue to devolve into Democrat Lite, under the insipid leadership of the 8th District’s, John Boehner. It’s all on their shoulders and the rest of us can only watch with anticipation, to see if they do the right thing or give Boehner a mandate to continue his Democrat-Lite agenda.

The Ohio primary will take place in just over a week, on Tuesday, May 6. If you live in Ohio’s District 8, we urge you to vote for J.D. Winteregg. If you live outside the district, but know someone in that district, we urge you to contact them and make sure that they understand the importance of defeating John Boehner in the primary and why J.D. Winteregg is the only person who can do that.

To learn more about J.D. Winteregg, visit:

To learn more about Eric Gurr, visit:
Both men are good conservatives, for whom any TEA Party voter should be proud to vote. Whether or not one of them wins this race, I expect to hear great things from both of them in the future. If you see either of them in future races, you might want to give that person serious consideration.
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John Boehner can be defeated, but Eric Gurr must drop out of the race (see update) — 6 Comments

  1. It’s spelled Gurr. If he’s so insignificant. Why write a. Whole article about him? Hm. Eric Gurr and J.D are very different. You’d know that if you actually did your research. Ask J.D what his stance on deportation is. Ask him about the federal reserve. Ask what specifically what we should do about our debt. Ask him about how to create jobs. And make sure you get a real answer. And then go talk to Eric Gurr.

    • Courtney, the important thing in this race isn’t deportation, the Fed or jobs. Those are all issues to be fought in other races. This race is all about defeating Boehner with anyone (period).

      The GOP ship is sinking and Boehner is the gaping hole in the hull. Playing the old game of “my candidate is more conservative that yours,” is like arguing over whether to patch the hole in the hull of your ship with steel plate, aluminum plate or wood, when only one of those items is long enough to cover the hole. In the mean time, water continues to rush in.

      In this case, Winteregg is the only candidate who is capable of defeating Boehner. I like Gurr. By all measures that I have been able to determine, he’s a good man. But the most important issue is defeating Boehner.

      The thing that makes the Ohio 8 primary the most important in the nation is that defeating Boehner with anyone will send a shock wave through the RINO elite and get conservatives control of 90% of the remaining RINOs in Congress. In fact, I would even grudgingly trade one such seat to Democrats, to scare 200 RINOs into voting conservative for the first time in decades.

      The point is that which candidate defeats Boehner is secondary in importance to actually defeating Boehner. Gurr may or may not be the “better” candidate. But “better” isn’t good enough, if he can’t do Job #1, which is to defeat the most powerful RINO in Congress and with his lack of funds, that’s not going to happen.

      If Gurr wants to maintain his TEA Party credibility, he’ll prove his commitment to getting conservative control of Congress, by bowing out of a race where the only thing that he can possibly accomplish will be to split the conservative vote and give the District 8 seat back to Boehner.

  2. Secondly. How can it mot be about a particular candidate? If not the best candidate why not just vote democrat? I know I wont. If people like you would actually do your research and stand behind Eric Gurr, you could help spread the word. You would be supporting a man that could actually debate intelligently against John Boehner. Job number one is replacing Boehner with a better candidate. Not just a different one. The tea party leadership fund is the reason JD got name recognition. They told Eric Gurr VERBATIM “we think you’d make a better congressman, but JD is a better politician.” WHAT?!? JD from the very beginning said he would never drop out if Eric had the wind at his back. So how can send his minions to Email Eric asking him to drop out? Eric Gurr is not staying in to split the vote. He is staying in because JD is not right for the Job. Eric is staying in the race so that people can vote for someone who has the same principles and values as him. Someone who doesn’t make a “ends justifies the means” penis ad just to get attention.

    • Again, Courtney, you miss the point. Job number one is replacing Boehner with ANYONE (period). He is the single most powerful RINO in Congress and is doing more damage to the party with every passing day. Whoever replaces him will be a freshman congressman, with NO power – NONE. But by defeating Boehner in the GOP primary, it will prove beyond any doubt, that if we can primary out the Speaker of the House, then every remaining RINO is at risk of the same fate, if they continue their Democrat Lite ways.

      This is a local election that will have tremendous national impact, but only if Boehner is defeated. If the Tea Party Leadership Fund had supported Gurr, instead of Winteregg, I would be just as strongly advocating for Gurr, since their funding is what put Winteregg out front.

      You suggest that Gurr is a better candidate and that might possibly be true. But being a better candidate is only important if you actually win the race and can implement your agenda. But unfortunately for Gurr, his paltry fundraising means that he won’t get to that point in this election cycle.

      Boehner is going to be a difficult incumbent for even a well funded candidate to defeat. Furthermore, Boehner is counting on conservative candidates splitting the conservative vote, thus giving him an easy path to a win with 35 to 40 percent of the vote. We’ve reached the one-week mark and it’s time for the weaker candidates to bow out gracefully, for the good of the whole conservative movement across the nation.

  3. I know you won’t allow these comments to post, and there are a few misspellings. I’m just so angry at this kind of attitude. This “who cares who JD is, he can win!” Attitude. That’s how we end up with these people in Washington. Eric Gurr is a very intelligent man. He has studied history for 25 years. He has run a business is this shitty economy and knows how Boehner and Obama’s policies have effect people in the private sector. JD makes statements like “the Republican party is old, white, and out of touch. That’s what liberals say about repubs! What does race have to do with it?!? Have you watched the debates? Have you watched Eric Gurr’s interviews? His YouTube videos? Be honest with yourself. Have you truly vetted the men who want to represent you? Shouldn’t we be sending the best man for the job? Isn’t that how we fix this great nation?

  4. Actually, Courtney, I spent hours watching both Gurr and WInteregg and reading about them, before writing this article. In the process, I became aware of the only two things of import.

    1) J.D. Winteregg is the only challenger in the race who has the funding and who has developed the name recognition to have even a small chance of defeating Boehner.

    2) J.D. Winteregg is not a flaming liberal. In fact, he’s quite acceptable. He doesn’t fit all the criteria that I would like to see in a congressman. But then my own Republican congressman doesn’t fit all that criteria either. But this race isn’t about perfection. It’s about getting conservative control of Congress.

    This race is too important for conservatives to get bogged down in the old, “my candidate is more conservative than your candidate” rhetoric. It’s not even about Boehner, per se. It’s about the message that Boehner’s defeat will send to the remaining RINOs.

    There are roughly 200 RINOs in the House and about 36 in the Senate. We won’t be able to replace even a quarter of those up for election this year. But defeating Boehner, with anyone, will make all but a few of them tow the conservative line, till we can get rid of them, too. OK, McCain will never learn. But most will, if Boehner is defeated in the primary.

    Also, whoever becomes the next Speaker will realize that if he tries any of Boehner’s RINO tricks, he’ll be the first to be targeted for the same treatment in the next election.

    If it turns out in a year or two, that WInteregg isn’t the candidate that the Republicans of District 8 want, then you can vote him out in two years. But this is the best chance that we’ll have for a long time, to oust Boehner. In two years, it’s a presidential election and a senatorial election. Two years later, it’s a senatorial election. Then, two years later, it’s a presidential election. Then two more senatorial elections. The status quo does well in major elections that draw many party-line voters.

    The time is now. It’s the best of off-year elections and we have a moderately well funded candidate, who has achieved a fair degree of name recognition. It’s almost a perfect political storm and it will be a perfect political storm, when Gurr drops out.